Debate Ratings - Fall 2018

Ratings for Fall 2018 are posted.

There is one change from last year. Since we are still early in the season, I've cut the list down to 75 teams from 100. At the next update, it will return to 100. The reason for the change is that the actual rating of the 75th team right now will much more closely resemble the rating necessary to be in the top 100 later in the season. The fact that there are many teams that are currently excluded from the list for insufficient data means that other teams who will be *significantly* outside the top 100 end up getting listed. For perspective, the team that would be listed at 100 would actually be at 161 if there were no minimum round threshold.

I can see an argument that I should leave them in since it gives them some valuable recognition, but I also think there's an argument that it creates unrealistic expectations, misunderstanding and disappointment at the next update when they almost inevitably fall out of rankings - especially if they even improve their performance in the second semester.

Some reminders about the ratings:

1. If you feel strongly that you belong on this list but don't see your name, it may be possible that this is due to the ratings not having enough data on you.  The deviation for your rating has to be below 2.0 to be listed (which roughly amounts to around 24 rounds). 
2. These are not my personal opinions.  The algorithm is set and runs autonomously from how I may personally feel about teams.  I do not put my finger on the scale.
3. The ratings are determined by nothing more than the head to head outcome of debate rounds.  No preconceptions about which schools or debaters are good, no weighting for perceived quality of tournaments, no eye test adjustments.  If you beat somebody, your rating goes up and theirs goes down.  If you beat somebody with a much higher rating, it goes up more.  If you beat them in elims, it will go up by more than if you do so in prelims.  That's it.  If you want all the gory details, follow the link given below.
4. The quality of the ratings is limited by the quantity and quality of the data available.  It is still early in the season and a whole lot of teams haven't seen one another.  The geographic split in tournament travel makes things even more complicated.  Teams listed high or low right now might see considerable changes in their rankings over the course of the season.  It is entirely possible (even certain) that there are teams that have not performed in a way that's consistent with how good they "really are."
5. For a more detailed description of how the ratings are calculated, there are a number of posts in the archives that explain the process.  In particular, this post will be helpful.
6. If you are attentive to the rating number - not just the ranking - it will help you to understand even large differences in ranking might not amount to very much difference between teams.  For example, teams that might be separated by 10 or even 20 ranking spots might only be separated by a point or two in rating.

For a sense of what the ratings number actually means:

• A 1 point ratings advantage translates roughly into 5:4 expected odds,
• 2 points is about 3:2
• 3 points is about 2:1
• 4 points is about 3:1
• 5 points is about 4:1
• 8 points is about 9:1